Dan's NFL Predictions

Hello and welcome to my NFL prediction site. The software that builds out this site was written to predict games based on prior games data in the same year.

By this I mean no data carries over from one year to another, and each year is new. These predictions do not take injuries into account, as this is a pure mathematical model based on many model parameters (past home, past away turf, past away grass, how many weeks back to look, how many minimum games of same type to break out surfaces, different statistics to base prediction on etc. This software first predicts the game statistics (the stats predicted will vary depending on model) then directly predicts the spread and overunder based on a least-squares matrix. Finally, the model is varied over various parameters (currently almost 800) and we calculate a percentage over these variations.

The tool issues a prediction (the predictions in a bright green) if a minimal criteria is met based on the prior 20 years of analysis, but still logs a prediction (the predition is in a bright red) when the criteria is not met. This shows how close to a prediction passing we came.

Finally, an analysis is done over those almost 800 models since 1998, and the most accurate models are filtered to be selected.

This Weeks Current Picks
Historical Picks by Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Details around the current season being played
2016

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