Dan's NFL Predictions
Hello and welcome to my NFL prediction site. The software that builds out this site was written to predict games based on prior games data in the same year, and last few of prior early in season.
By this I mean the only data that carries over from one year to another is some seed data based on 3 of the final 4 weeks or prior year. These predictions do not take injuries into account, as this is a pure mathematical model based on many model parameters (past home, past away turf, past away grass, how many weeks back to look, how many minimum games of same type to break out surfaces, different statistics to base prediction on etc. This software first predicts the game statistics (the stats predicted will vary depending on model) then directly predicts the spread and overunder based on a least-squares matrix. Finally, the model is varied over various parameters (currently over 500) and we calculate a percentage over these variations.
The tool issues a prediction (the predictions in a bright green) if a minimal criteria is met based on the prior years of analysis, but still logs a prediction (the predition is in a bright red) when the criteria is not met. This shows how close to a prediction passing we came.
Finally, an analysis is done over those over 500 models since 1994, and the most accurate models are filtered to be selected.
|This Weeks Current Picks|
|Historical Picks by Year|
|Details around the current season being played|
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